Floyd Upperman & Associates Daily Evening HOTpage Report
07/08/2001
(ALERT!  Due to a flaw in the software, the above date stamp may be reported incorrectly 
in older reports.  The actual date of the report always corresponds to the file-date-name
displayed on the report page which you click on to pull up the report)

Please remember that commodity trading is risky and past performance in no guarantee of future results.  There are no promises or guarantees made in this report whatsoever. In addition, futures trading is not suitable for everyone.  The information provided herein are the opinions of the author.  While every effort  is made to ensure the integrity and accuracy of the data,  no promises or guarantees are made. 

Good evening everyone,

I hope everyone had a safe and enjoyable extended holiday weekend!  These breaks from the market action are always nice.  They give us time to spend with our families and friends, as well as time to rest and re-charge our batteries.  I have personally found that it is very important to take breaks and time away, in order to retain the right mental capacity in this extremely demanding business.  Kim and I did just that this week and took little Brittany to the Zoo!  She had a blast!  I've loaded a new digital picture of Brittany (she is almost 8 months old now)!  To access her latest giggle pose, click here >  Little Miss Brittany K. Upperman 7/8/01.

As mentioned in Friday's hot-flash email (titled IMPA Alert),  the CFTC has delayed releasing the raw weekly commitment of traders (COT) data until tomorrow (Monday, July 9th).   Because of this,  I'll be writing tonight's update using the normal daily report format and will update tomorrow's report using the weekly IMPA format.  In addition,  I'll be using this opportunity to review the new Trend/Swing graphs as well as the new enhancements to our weekly price graphs.   Lets get started with that now.  

Swing Trading System Update & Review:  

I am still working on the manuals and updates to existing manuals,  but am nearly complete with the new graphs.   I may still add one more graph (under the new Trend/Swing Graph) as well as a summary swing report (similar to the activity report).  I will also be adding a few other indicative readings to the existing new graphs (one is mentioned below).  Lets look at these new graphs tonight as I take this opportunity (while we wait on tomorrow's IMPA update) to explain the new graphs and how to use this new information as part of a swing trading strategy and/or system.  These new graphs can also be used to supplement our position trading system, which I'll demonstrate in the KW tonight.   However,  they should be used in addition to our main graphs and core IMPA indictors.  Please understand that nothing has changed with the position trading system.  If you simply wanted to include these new graphs as part of your overall position trading analysis, or day to day analysis,  you certainly can do that.  

Explanation of our New Weekly Price Graphs (changes & additions)

Essentially, the STB indicator highlights the swing lows and swing highs as they occur.  It is not a cycle indicator.  The STB is derived from a proprietary formula which is similar to stochastic.  W

Swing Trading Strategy A - Use the weekly price chart to define the intermediate trend, and use the STB along with the Daily Trend/Swing graph to buy and sell into the intermediate trend (as defined by the weekly graph).

FYI - CP always stands for "Closing Price".  This is the closing price (CP) for the day indicated.  In the graph above, we see the date range is 19-JUN-1998 through 06-JUL-2001.  Therefore, the CP represents the closing price for 06-JUL-2001 (which was last Friday).  The change, shown in parenthesis, is the point change for the entire week!  The dollar change ($), reflects the actual dollar change for the entire week as well!  In the above case, we see the point change is 14 and the dollar change $700.  This means from Friday's closing price two weeks ago (6/29/01) to last Friday's (7/6/01) closing price,  the net point change is 14 cents, or $700 per contract.  Lets verify this together (for the above Soybean graph).

August Soybeans 6/29/01 closing price = 474.25
August Soybeans 7/06/01 closing price = 488.25
The difference equals (488.25 - 474.25) which equates to 14 cents.
A 14 cent change equals ($50 X 14) or $700!  

This is very useful information for us and greatly assists us in reviewing the market action in terms of a summary for each week.  Personally,  I do quite a bit of market analysis over the weekend, and one of the things I review each week is the net-change (in term of both points and dollars) for the week.  This new addition to our weekly price graph makes this analysis very simple!  Basically, its automatically done for us each week, and all we really need to do is simply review the data.  

These new weekly graphs are updated daily!!  We update our weekly and historical price graphs daily with all other daily graph & indicator updates!   Now, this means that as the week progresses, we will see the net point change and net dollar change reflect the change based on the previous Friday's close to the close of the most recent day of the week.  In other words,  when we receive Monday's update, the net weekly change will reflect the change from Friday's close to Monday.  When we receive Tuesday's update, the net weekly change will reflect the change from Friday to Tuesday.  On Wednesday it will be from Friday to Wednesday.  Finally by Friday, the net weekly point change and dollar change reflects the change from Friday's close to Friday's close! 
 

Daily Trend / Swing graph (accessed by clicking on "T") -  This graph displays the current short-term trend using color.  When the trend is up it is blue, when the trend is down it is red.  When the trend appears to be in transition,  it turns green.  The times when it turns green is of importance because this indicates a potential trend transition is taking place.  The proprietary formula used to detect the short-term trend centers around the 18dma.   Lets take a look at the recent Trend/Swing graph in soybeans.   

The daily "Technicals" are now directly attached to EACH daily price chart.  The "T" is now used to access the new "Trend / Swing" graph(s).

Again, there will be more on all this as I continue to bring these new systems and data on line.  Thank you for your continued patience. 

Shorts Positions:

September Kansas Wheat - Some members are still short the KW.  This market closed up 4.25 on the week for a loss of $212.50 (for those short).  However, this is not really a loss, rather we have just given back some profits.  Those of you position trading this market have been short for many weeks now (since May).  At this point I would continue to trail the 50% stops on down in here to lock in more profits.  I do not want to see 318 taken out now (down from 325).  Thus far, the trend remains down.  We also see that our new Trend graph shows the trend remains down via the RED.  Lets look at that quickly. 

* We also remain under a RED Weekly STB sell conditions via our weekly price graph (KW).  

August GC (Gold) - We had a nice week in gold (those short).  We closed down $4.70 on the week, for a gain of $470 for those still short.   Overall,  I am still looking for lower prices in gold, but am also waiting on Monday's IMPA.  If short, stay short with stops at 280.  You should have already locked in 50% profits.  

August [HU] Unleaded Gas -   We got a bounce in the HU last week,  which doesn't surprise me at all right now.  Why?  Well, first of all this market has come down beautifully and made the shorts a great deal of money in a short-time.   Thus, there was bound to be some short-covering and profit taking following the recent sharp sell off.  Secondly, last week we had an official buy selection in the Crude oil.  That indicated to us that Crude had the right conditions to bounce and possibly begin trending higher.  We certainly seen that in crude this week.  Crude rose $1.19 a barrel and just turned "green" (I believe on Friday) on our new trend graphs,  thus indicating we possibly may be turning a corner (up) here for potentially higher crude prices short-term.  What does this mean for unleaded gas?  Obviously the two a very closely related.  Thus,  a rise in crude will likely result in a rise in unleaded gas price as well.  Therefore, for those still 50% short the unleaded gas,  go ahead and tighten up those stops substantially now to lock in your profits on your remaining 50%.   I will stop tracking this market for the shorts when/if the market closes above the 18dma two days in a row.  Longer-term, we may get another chance at selling it,  but for now I believe we want to be working to protect our profits as we have rode this trend down rather nicely!

Lets take a look at the current "green" price bar on our new daily Trend/Swing graph.  

September Nasdaq -  This market closed sharply lower on the week.  The IMPA has been extremely bearish for many months now as I have been discussing in our reports together.  Those short last week realized a gain of $16300 per contract on the week!  

Markets setting up for short positions:

September [ED] EURODOLLARS -  In this market we see our Trend graph did turn RED, but the daily STB did not turn RED!  It remained green following a BLUE STB.  Our weekly STB shows no sign of changing at this juncture.  Thus, I think the trend remains up here.  Lets continue to wait.  

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LONG POSITIONS:  

[FC] FEEDER CATTLE -  Down slightly on the week.  Some position trading members still remain long.  Stay with it if long using your trailing stops on your remaining 50%.  

Markets setting up for Long positions: 

SPREADS:

Baskets: 

OPTIONS:   

Swing Trades (For Advanced Traders)

Swing trade buys:

Swing trade sells:

September S&P -  We closed $9475 lower on the week via an outside week down.  This market has indeed rolled back over to the downside.  Lets wait on Monday's IMPA now.     

Sept ND (IX) -  This market closed lower on the week as mentioned.  

Sept DJ (Dow Jones) - This market closed lower as well, and our Trend graph has done a very good job in anticipating the direction of this market, as well as anticipating the turning points!

Current High Risk Positions and outlook:  My overall bias remains to the downside, which its been that way for a number of months overall.  Lets wait on tomorrow's IMPA now.  

Stocks:  

Interest Rates - 

[US] T-BONDS - 

[TY] Ten Year Notes -  

[ED] EURODOLLARS - 

[TB] T-Bills - . 

ENERGY MARKETS:     

[CL] CRUDE OIL -  
[HO] HEATING OIL -   
[HU] UNLEADED GAS -  
[NG] NATURAL GAS -  

METALS:  

[GC] GOLD - 

[SI] SILVER -   

[HG] COPPER - 

[PL] PLATINUM -  To wild for most.  

[PA] PALLADIUM -  To wild for most.  

GRAINS:    

[S] SOYBEANS - Up, trend is up on the swing. 

[SM] SOYBEAN MEAL - Up, trend up now here as well.

[SO] SOYBEAN OIL -   

CRUSH SPREAD -   

[C] CORN -  

[W] WHEAT (Chicago) - 

[MW] - 

[KW] -  

[O] OATS-    

LIVESTOCK:    

[LH] LEAN HOGS -  

[PB] PORK BELLIES - 

[FC] FEEDER CATTLE - .

[LC] LIVE CATTLE - 

SOFTS: 

[SB] SUGAR -   

[CC] COCOA -  

[KC] COFFEE -  The overall trend remains down. 

[CT] COTTON -   The trend remains down. 

[JO] ORANGE JUICE -   

[LB] LUMBER - 

CURRENCIES:  

[CD] CANADIAN DOLLAR -   

[BP] BRITISH POUND -  

[FX] EURO CURRENCY - 

[SF] SWISS FRANC -   

[JY] JAPANESE YEN - 

[AD] AUSSIE DOLLAR - 

[DX] US DOLLAR  -  

Other Markets:

[GI] GSCI  - 

[NK] Nikkei -  

Position Management and Money Management Portion of the System - Remember never to risk more than 10% of your risk capital on any one single trade. We must never adjust the stop to accommodate the 10% risk.  The stop needs to be placed strategically based on the market, and the market alone, not what you can afford to lose.  I can't stress the importance of this enough.   Once the stop point is determined, the risk can be calculated.  If the risk is to large, pass on the trade and wait for a lower risk trade. 

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NO TRADING SYSTEM CAN GUARANTEE PROFITS
No guarantees can be made for success.  Past performance is not a guarantee of future profits. 
Futures trading is NOT my only means of income.  I also invest in stocks, real estate as well as 
generate income from other businesses. I have both winning trades and losing trades. 
I trade professionally, but not daily.  I wait for what I believe to be ideal trading opportunities. 
Very Respectfully,
Floyd W. Upperman Jr.

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Revised: 24 Jul 2004 05:39:59 -0000.

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