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"Disaggregated COT, CIT, Traders in Financial Futures (TFF) and traditional COT!"

Futures Trading

Using our online tools and data, members learn how to do the following and much much more!

  • Learn to anticipate future turning points before they happen using statistical COT measures and price patterns.
     

  • Track large speculator (fund) activity to determine when markets are vulnerable for a sell-off or a rally.
    For example, we know markets are more vulnerable for a sell-off when a great deal of speculative longs are in the market.  We call this a "wound up spec long position".  This scenario indicates large speculators are holding profits on a large net-long position.  They are very exposed at this point.  If the market simply experiences a small hiccup, a great deal of their profits can evaporate.  Think about it.  If you are long a market and adding to positions as prices move higher and higher, you essentially continue to double up with the trend. At the extreme high you will be very vulnerable.  A small counter-trend move (down) can quickly wipe out your profits.  At this point in time you become more nervous and aware of the risk.  Your finger is on the Sell Button!   This is precisely what we monitor and look for using the COT data!   And it works the same and just as well in reverse.  When large speculators are holding a large short position, they can become overexposed in this side as well.  A small bounce can wipe out a significant portion of their profits and they become very aware and nervous about this.  Thus, the market becomes more "vulnerable" to short-covering, and that is FUEL for a RALLY!    
     

  • Spot divergence in large speculator positioning versus price.  We've seen this time and time again.  Large speculators are the "smart traders"!  They often begin exiting bull or bear markets BEFORE a major top or bottom is formed.
     

  • Many new traders make the mistake of thinking the commercials are the "smart traders", but they are not.  The commercials are hedgers in the physical markets.   They do have greater access to the underlying fundamentals, and that's why we also pay very close attention to their hedging activities.  But they are not speculating in the way that the large traders (funds) are.  We must get into the minds of both participants (speculators and physical hedgers) to gauge market vulnerabilities and longer-term price direction.  Traders learn these tactics here!

 


 

 

Disclosure

Pessimism never won any battle.   - Dwight D. Eisenhower
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